Saturday, December 27, 2008

A quick thought on the latest hostilities

It seems today that Israel has finally decided that take the gloves off and start bombing the heck out of Gaza and Hamas. For those of you who didn't know, for the past few weeks (and also the past few years), Hamas has been shooting missiles and mortars into Israel. There has been relative calm over the past six months as a shaky cease fire was in effect, and when it expired last week, the missiles and mortars started again.

During the day prior to the attack, there were 60 missiles and mortars shot at Israel. Luckily for Israel, they are largely ineffective, causing relatively little bodily injury, a bit of property damage, and a tremendous amount of fear. The missiles were not shot at military bases, but into the neighboring villages and towns. I think that's one important difference to make in the two sides, Israel targeted military installations, Hamas targeted civilians.

France has apparently said that Israel responded disproportionately. I guess the only analogy I have is that if someone stands there spitting on you and they don't stop when you ask them, then eventually you slug the guy. Yeah, a broken nose is a bit over the top for a little saliva, but one can see how the guy had it coming. I think Israel took the added step of leaving the room several years ago to stop the spitting. But Hamas figured out ways to spit further. Now they are getting their nose broken, as well as probably an arm, but still they are shooting missiles and rhetoric.

It's a strange situation because their basic ideology is a siege mentality so when Israel actually responds to their provocations, it reinforces their belief that Israel is out to get them. Kind of like the Branch Dividians - they were expecting a siege, and when they got one, the leaders said Hey, we're right. I don't know how one negotiates with people like that. A friend said, a very long time ago, that if the Palestinians adopted non-violence (and really believed in it), they would have a state in about two weeks. I still think that's true.

I saw an editorial in Haaretz, a major Israeli newspaper that I liked. The link is here: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1050421.html. I'll post when part two is published.

I don't know what the next few weeks will bring. I don't think these attacks will do much for the long term, though they might slow down the missile attacks in the short term. It's seems like an exercise in trial and error: Israel keeps trying restraint, then it tries war, and neither seem to get anywhere. There is a lot the Israel needs to do to clean up it's own actions, as I've written about before, but my sense is that even if Israel was perfect in her actions, Hamas would still behave the same way and attack us.

Unfortunately for us, I think we seem to be living in interesting times.

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